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Wednesday, April 1, 2015

War in Yemen is a Sectarian Muslim Shia- Sunni conflict


Shia and Sunnis are two distinct sects of Islam, but they are at daggers drawn against each other. the Sunnis outnumber the Shia's but both have influential backers. Saudi Arabia is the backer of the Sunnis and is also a prominent Sunni nation. It's opponent is Iran which is Shia. Both nations are in a power struggle in the Middle East and the latest playground is Yemen after the ongoing mayhem in Iraq.

Yemen is a backward country steeped in obscurantism. But a civil war is on there and the President of Yemen had to flee recently. Saudi jets have opened a front against the rebels, with bombing and strafing. but no ground troops are committed and that is the lacuna for the Saudis to win they must have ground troops in battle. They are asking Pakistan to send troops to bale them out as the Saudi army does not seem to have much fighting capability to win a ground offensive against the rebels on its own. As per reports Pakistan will oblige with a token presence as the Pak leadership knows that if it is embroiled in a sectarian conflict in Yemen, it may be like going in a quicksand and difficult to extricate later. It will also antagonize Iran.

The ISI in Iraq is a Sunni outfit and fighting against a Shia dominated government. but with America against the ISI, the Sunni victory there appears impossible. Iran is helping the Baghdad government. Thus the entire Middle East is a cauldron or if I may say it's the Witches Brew.  One cannot forecast which side will win, but  Iran with its dedicated government may be ahead in the scales of power. The future cannot be forecast except that more strife will continue in yemen. Will the Saudi's win in Yemen ? not likely given their present military might and lack of ground troops to support an offensive.



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